Central Bank Issues Bonds
Buy Rocks and Guano Instead
THE Governor of the Central Bank Francis Chang Leng, who's name is becoming synonymous with the phrase "borrowing to death", has proposed on SBC another new issue of Government of Seychelles Bonds at an unusually favorable rate, according to him. The fact that the Bonds can be redeemed at any time and do not have a fixed maturity date exposes how he already knows the Public will not be attracted to Government of Seychelles Bonds. Mr. Chang Leng is relying on institutional investors like Government controlled banks and parastatals to foot the bill for his Bond exercise in order that he can get hold of more money, even Rupees and give back to SPPF Government, to pay for its ridiculous finance policies. In the end, we the People pay.
Inside word from the Central Bank is that Mr. Chang Leng is preparing us for another 40% Devaluation of our national currency the Seychelles Rupee. Devaluation= Destruction, the inside word says. The issuing of the Government Bonds at this time will do in the subscribers as the Rupee devalues again for a second time in less then one year. The proposed interest on the Bond, which is not worth mentioning, will be absorbed against the further devaluation of the Seychelles Rupee. As the Government Bonds are issued, Mr. Chang Leng hopes to also further reduce liquidity in our rouge financial system, to hedge the prolific Black Market that has been evasive to Mr. Chang Lengs', bogus macro economic policies so far and his attempts at fiscal monetary management in Seychelles. We must be weary of men that sound too good to be true. They usually are too good to be true.
Bonds vs. Real Investments
In the real World of investments, the World is going through a super growth period. In the Pilbara region of Western Australia, a mining boom is taking place in iron ore, which being used to build China's lightening pace development, which is a huge driver in the Bull Market (aggressive-growth markets).
In the Middle East, the six Nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) earned $381.00 Billion from oil exports in 2007. These earning will reach in the Trillions if the price of oil remains over $100.00 per barrel over the next few years. This region has more money then it knows what to do with. As a result, much of that money will flow into infrastructure development of the Gulf region itself.
Infrastructure stocks in the region will be an easy money earner which will have a high multiplier effect on institutional and individual wealth. Someone has to receive contracts to build this entire massive infrastructure in the GCC. However, for Seychelles institutions, to make money off the GCC region boom, you will need to be able to convert your Rupees to hard currency, any kind. Since Albert Rene and James Michel and Mr. Chang Leng prohibit that, we will just have to sit out this boom in the GCC region and beg the winners to come build a villa -holiday home for themselves in Seychelles. This is basically the posture of President Michel's Economic Development Policy as it has been unfolding and revealed to us slowly but surely. There is no real policy, it's boot-licking all the way. There is no Strategy 2017, really. It's just another cloud to occupy our brains. Michel is acquiring an acute reputation of being a master at puffery, to put things lightly. Rene is catching on now. Ramkalawan has misunderstood the whole exercise.
Alternative To Bonds in Bad Times
If not Bonds then what can we invest in? It is apparent our Seychelles Rupees is worthless as an investment tool. So, what can we do? Well, when faced with no options, we must in spite of our lack of opportunity, find a way. There is a way. I suggest all Seychellois ignore this Mr. Chang Leng guy at the Central Bank.
In my opinion, he is not there, all the time. The amount of time he travels overseas in a year is testimony to that. When you think he is in the glass building, he could just as well be watching a Liverpool match in the UK. While the glass building looks at us everyday, it does not mean there is any one inside thinking on our behalf and securing our future. It could just be there is no one in there, and we have no future and nothing to look forward to except a big Seychelles Rupee 1,000.00 note in the pipeline, to pay for our next packet of fish with.
My advice to Seychellois with Rupees still in hand, is to invest, bearing in mind, we are collapsing-economically. In spite of SPPF failures, we must continue to invest in our Motherland. We must honor her with the best of our efforts in spite of SPPF and a few musicians that confuse theft, corruption and mismanagement with love of country. Pig food indeed! The road ahead will be difficult, but we must ensure Seychellois business survives Mr. Michel's effort to displace us in our own Country, with Arabs Russians, Communist Chinese Contractors.
A Small Investment Scheme
Small investors may want to consider buying and stocking the entire well - mesh they can and keep in safe place covered by plastic and washed down to prevent rusting. Overtime, as in the next shipment, they will double in price and over extended times as in the next 3 shipments, they will double in value again even with a little rust on them. The Central Bank Bonds Mr. Chang Leng want you to buy cannot and will not do that.
A Larger Investment Option
Those willing to pay a truck to wait in line at UCPS or CCCL have the huge advantage of investing in concrete blocks. As the World demand for cement increases and prices skyrocket from fuel transportation costs, and operations costs, your blocks will sit in a yard and increase in value everyday. When the Arabs come here and SPPF tries to make them build a villa, they will need your blocks and money will not be an object. They may even offer you US Dollars or Euros for them and a camel to get to town in the dry season. Don't laugh the possibilities and realities are there. One SPPF friend told me to ask whether we can import ox-carts from La Digue to Mahe after he had to fork out Rupees 1,400.00 to fill his Nissan 4x4 Truck. He is seriously considering dumping SPPF, because it appears the leadership has no rudder and they no longer know who is Captain. He says they were told Michel would put his foot down in the Congress, instead he opted for a moment of silence and made like he was in Church.
When there are no blocks at UCPS or CCCL buy anything. Macadam, Crusher Dust, anything you can get your hands on. Why? because as fuel goes up, electricity goes up, these items will go up in price. They will soar. When the machines breakdown, Arabs will need what you have and will pay anything for it. Price will be irrelevant. Your Crusher Dust will outpace Mr. Chang Lengs Bonds on Return on Investment (ROI) hands down. You may even be able to get Dollars and Euros for it. As Mr. Chang Leng devalues our currency, your Crusher Dust investment will survive the destruction he proposes. As he makes you poor with devaluation, you will recoup your wealth on resale of Crusher Dust.
For short term spot investments consider bags of cement. Land Marine has failed till this day to maintain an adequate supply chain for cement. We have been humiliated as a People to have to submit our ID Card and our children's ID Card to purchase a bag of cement. SPPF gives priority to its people through the Branch office supervising the distribution of cement on Praslin and La Digue. They sell you only enough for a tombstone. Sick isn't it! Cover your cement, place timber or plywood underneath your precious stock to insulate from moisture. Better, build a shed to secure your cement. Consider placing portable GPS monitoring systems to each bag which now costs a could of dollars extra to insure security of your bags from theft.
Last Resort Investment
As the Country will run out of blocks, and block machines will break down, and commercial banks will not be able to help UCPS or CCCL, we will resort to granite rocks as a replacement for concrete blocks. Arabs and Russians will prefer the visual effects of granite rock over blocks. Stock rocks as a last resort investment. You cannot go wrong. Prices will increase per tonnage faster then Mr. Chang Leng will be able to repay those fancy Bonds he talks about so smoothly.
Ironically, this investment scheme will give us little Seychellois, a chance to participate in Mr. Michel's grand scheme of bringing in Arabs, Russians, and Communist Chinese to our shores for economic development of Seychelles. We will side track his administrations effort to squeeze Seychellois out of the economic circles of Seychelles. As we do these little investments, we will be putting our Country first in spite of SPPF and their paid musicians that beat the drums of disaster upon us and call us unpatriotic for exposing foolish ideas and corruption in Seychelles. Keep on singing your tunes; we will keep on documenting our collapse at your hands SPPF.
Sea cucumber Guano and Salt Fish, etc...
In the coming years, those of us who harvest sea cucumbers for an export product will have to compete with State House insiders for this business. As the price of sea cucumbers surge, the top Brass will want a piece of this action, since earnings are in hard currency. They will make deals with fishermen with pretty sisters and guarantee export permits while they use laws through SFA to restrict export of sea cucumbers overseas. They will run the same scheme with Bourgeois fish our prized foreign exchange earner for our Fishing Industry.
As Guano becomes a fertilizer in demand because it is organic, it will reach prices of $1,000.00 per ton or more. IDC Boss will want us to collect Guano for him much like we did in the past. As a last resort, in order to set eyes on our beloved National Heritage, we will agree to collect Guano in exchange for a visit to the Outer Islands we hear about only from the lips of foreigners.
Those that are industrious will salt fish again. The Return on Investment (ROI) will be high when electricity faults cause conserved fish to go bad, the price of salted fish will sky rocket. Profits will be at hand for the determined businessman. As fishermen tie their boats to the docks in protest to bad deals SPPF dishes out, salted fish will increase in value.
As for our Offshore sector ignore it for now, that will go "on" shore and Seychelles credibility in the region under SPPF will be as bad as Somalia's in North Eastern Africa. There is no Government in Somalia.....only pirates.
Happy investing a la SPPF!