OIL IN SEYCHELLES - IS THE GOVERNMENT GRASPING AT STRAWS!

The economy stutters from bad to worse!

The much hyped-up local copycat version of the BBC’s panorama program broadcasted by Seychelles Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) television which aired on Monday, 13th August, at 8.45pm this week, got a mixed reaction; optimism, on the one hand and cynicism on the other. Most people who watched the program reacted positively and hope against all odds that oil is found in Seychelles soon. However, some people have expressed skepticism and pessimism. The SBC presenter pathetically kept repeating the fact that it was now “inevitable” that oil exists in Seychelles waters and may be found any time soon. It seems as if he was trying to convince even himself that this pipe dream may somehow, miraculously, in the not too distant future, become a reality. A dream, now being held on to by many Seychellois as the economy stutters from bad to worse. The bust and boom cycle which characterize most world economies has somehow managed to evade Seychelles. The local economy seems to be stuck permanently in the bust zone and has obstinately refused to evolve to the boom zone as is normally expected worldwide. Economic stagnation is now generally accepted as the order of the day in Seychelles

SPPF government does not have any plans how to resolve our economic difficulty!

However, the air of desperation was apparent for all to see. Some people who participated in the program had already made plans how the government should spend the proceeds of sale even before oil is actually discovered here. All in all, if anything, this program showed quite clearly that the government’s only hope of achieving economic recovery and prosperity is through the discovery of oil in our waters. This was the overall impression created. It has become abundantly clear that the SPPF government does not have any plans how to resolve our economic difficulty. The fiasco which played itself out on national television last week was all too visible and apparent. First, President James Michel appeared on our collective TV screens and painted a rosy picture of our economy and the general situation of our country. Barely a week had elapsed before Ahmed Afif and Guy Adam were concurrently sent by the President as angels of darkness to paint a more realistic picture, one of doom and gloom. This shattered the myth that all is well in Seychelles. With visibly somber faces, one, and then the other, announced that the government has collected less money last year than the previous year. The figure was quoted at an astounding R.77,000,000. Afif explained that in 2003-2004 the government collected R. 177,000,000 in taxes (GST & Trades Tax) on fuel. Whereas for 2005-2006, he said, the government collected a mere R.77,000,000.

Afif unenthusiastically admitted that the government has to collect this shortfall from somewhere and he reluctantly pointed at an increase in the overall price of fuel as the most obvious solution. Mr. Guy Adam for his part gave a stark warning. He blatantly stated that if there is a rupture of stock the whole economy will collapse. He categorically stated that the price of fuel cannot stay the same and that if Seypec was a private company it would have left Seychelles a long time ago.

President James Michel does not want to be the bearer of bad news!

Although blame was apportioned at the current price of fuel, for those who are more astute, it quickly became crystal clear that the money was rather spent during the Presidential election of 2006 and the Parliamentary elections of 2007 by the SPPF rather than on fuel subsidy. In any event, it seems that President James Michel does not want to be the bearer of bad news. Whenever there is bad news, he sends his messengers to the people to announce the appalling news. However, whenever there is good news, which is becoming few and far between, the President comes himself. Whatever happened to the election manifesto which promised us the earth and the sky? Has it been conveniently forgotten and allowed to gather dust on a shelf somewhere? The fact of the matter is, that it is more probable than not, that there is no oil in Seychelles. Even if there is, it will take decades before the first drop is extracted from the sedimentary rocks beneath our seas. The SPPF government should, therefore, start thinking of their plan B real fast, that is, if there is indeed a plan B. All indications are that unless the government embarks on a genuine and sincere liberalization of the economy, which they keep promising, but fail to deliver, things will remain economically bleak for the foreseeable future. 

August 17, 2007
Copyright 2007: Seychelles Weekly, Victoria, Mahe, Seychelles