It has now be officially announced that the 5000 odd houses at the Ile Perseverance will be conveniently handed over to their occupants in 2010, just in time for the Presidential and General Elections in 2011. The island which will be legally turned into an independent and separate electoral area will also provide a block of over 5000 votes to the SPPF, enough to provide the “killer Punch” to President James Alix Michel and the SPPF at the next elections. For this reason each and every applicant will be meticulously scrutinized and vetted to ensure that their political allegiance and loyalty are with SPPF before they will become eligible to receive a house on the island. Gerrymandering is a tool employed effectively by SPPF to tip elections in their favour from time immemorial. Roche Caiman is a perfect example of the practice being employed successfully time and time again. Arguably, the houses at Ile Perseverance which have been used to house athletes participating in the CJSOI will definitely not take another two years to complete by any stretch of the imagination. But since there are no elections around the corner, SPPF has decided to make a grand opening in 2010, closer to the elections.
There are only about 5000 votes at the moment which separate the SPPF from the opposition; a number which is normally considered negligible in any election because of potential swing votes which can be triggered by the most mundane factors, like the spiralling cost of living. With the recent downgrading of Seychelles credit ratings from a B sovereign rating last year to a C by Standard and Poor’s recently because of Seychelles failure to pay interest and capital on the 54.75 million Euro loan which fell due on the 1st July 2008, it would be extremely difficult for the country to secure future loans on the International Financial Market. Coupled with the rapid rise in the cost of living caused by massive devaluation of the rupee, it is reasonable to assume that the country is expected to go through an unprecedented economic crisis likely to cause popular uprising, unrest and agitation for change in the face of SPPF’s failures.
Historically, change in government is triggered by economic crisis which hits people where it really hurts; their pockets. Russia in 1917 and recently Argentina are prime examples of this phenomenon. Seychelles will be no different and when the crisis starts to bite with food shortages, stagnant wages and increase in prices of utilities and commodities; the SPPF is likely to suffer the same fate. What is abundantly clear though is that there would not be much fanfare in the coming years as the pain of economic reforms kicks in. The opening of yet another housing estate nearer to the election is fitting, therefore, to give the general impression that things are progressing well. The 5000 plus votes at Ile Perseverance will also be crucial to save the SPPF’s bacon at these elections.