Michel Barely Scrape Through

MICHEL BARELY SCRAPES THROUGH

After an election campaign lasting well over two years with unlimited funds, manpower and patronage of the state on his side, James Alix Michel barely scraped through with enough votes to become President of Seychelles under the current constitution. But, as the third President of the Third Republic, Michel inherits a Seychelles that was once a prosperous and viable economic entity but which, after 29 years of socialism, is now in serious decline despite the veneer of prosperity.

The decline may not be evident in terms of new buildings or new cars which are built or imported on borrowed money. Even in the most dilapidated society one can observe the pockets of prosperity. But measured by internal standards of economic success our nation evidences serious economic backwardness.

Measured in terms of economic growth we are one of only two in Africa, not in the throes of violent civil war that has been in the negative. The other, Zimbabwe, is run not coincidentally, on the same platform remnant of socialism and state control. Like Zimbabwe, our country's currency no longer has any international exchange value. Even our government has stopped using it for transactions with foreign investors or overseas lenders.

By the standard of the World Bank we have one of the highest value of external debt per head of population. This debt burden, according to the IMF, is unsustainable making it impossible for our future generation to enjoy even the current but declining standard of living. The un-sustainability of our external debt is becoming more evident as the government continues to build up payment arrears.

But payment arrears are not just by the Government. It is also the norm with parastatals and the commercial sector of the private sector. Seychelles has long ago been abandoned by international credit insurance providers. Exports to Seychelles no longer qualify for credit insurance. We are now dealing with the rest of the world on a cash-in-advance basis. But the cash comes in dribs and drabs.

The most obvious indicator of decline in any country is the buildings that remain unfinished years on end and we have them too. The economic decline is more evident as we peel off the veneer of prosperity created by state sponsored propaganda.

In the social housing estates provided by the state a whole army of indigents is now emerging unable not only to pay rent, electricity and water, many cannot feed themselves and their children. For many it is not just a question of little disposable income, but no income at all. The SPPF agent may have brought some temporary relief with the electoral bribes but they have a whole life ahead of them. The only product of these deprivations is the new generation of young but hardcore criminals that are threatening the tourism industry and the peaceful enjoyment of life by the average citizen.

In our only hospital equipments remain un-repaired for long periods because the foreign currency required to buy the spares are not available. People die of negligence because doctors cannot make the appropriate diagnosis and nurses cannot provide the proper care. Those who can afford it go overseas.

When Mancham and the Democratic Party won the general elections in 1974 defeating Rene's SPUP with 53% of the votes they said this was not a convincing mandate. Michel and Rene decided to stage a coup d'etat in 1977. Mr Michel, by the same yardstick cannot call his a convincing mandate but a coup by his political adversaries is unlikely.

As we all know, all the woes of this nation that James Michel is inheriting are his own making-well he had more than a hand it them. He must now drink from the very poison chalice he helped create. Enjoy it Mr President.